Gartner: 15 per cent of IT staff to go by 2010

Under pressure from ever-more capable outsourcers, information technology departments are poised for serious staff reductions over the next few years, according to a new report from research firm Gartner.

By 2010, the number of IT staff in the profession will shrink by 15 per cent, Gartner predicted on Tuesday. Apart from the rise of outsourcers - who often provide their services from lower-cost countries such as India - IT departments also face the diffusion of tech skills throughout an organisation, Gartner said.

"As IT becomes a more integral part of every business function, there will be increasing numbers of people outside the [information systems organisation] whose work involves IT," Gartner said in the report. "And as IT skills become a more important component of business professionalism, in-house IS staff will be displaced."

The report adds to somewhat confusing signals about the future of the IT profession. The US Department of Labor forecasts that computer software engineering and network systems and data communications analysis will be among the top 10 fastest-growing occupations between 2002 and 2012. And last autumn, a Gartner analyst predicted a shortage of technology professionals in the US in the near future, thanks to factors such as declining student interest in the tech field.

But a study in 2004 from research organisation Rand did not find evidence that shortages of engineering, mathematics, scientific and technical, personnel in the US workforce are on the horizon. A separate Gartner analyst last year predicted that over the next 20 years, changes in computing technology will erase the need for much of the work that employs IT staff today.

In addition, the growing trend of shipping IT work offshore seems likely to harm US techies in the form of fewer US jobs created, at least in the short term. A report last year, sponsored by the Information Technology Association of America trade group, on offshore outsourcing of software and IT services indicated that sacrifices by American IT workers would result in an improved US economy overall.

In its latest report, Gartner forecasts increased involvement by IT staffers in business matters. By 2010, the firm said, 60 per cent of the people affiliated with the information systems group will assume "business-facing roles around information, process and relationships." As a result, Gartner predicted, "the size of the IS organisation will decrease, and... by 2010, IT departments in mid-sized and large companies will be at least one-third smaller than they were in 2000".

David Flint, research vice president at Gartner, said in a statement: "As we see departments within businesses taking on the traditional functions of IT, so IS professionals and leaders will have to choose between careers as technologists, technical managers and business professionals."

Ed Frauenheim writes for CNET News.com