China a "global ICT superpower" by 2010?

China's success in the global info-communications and technology (ICT) sector will depend on the quality of government involvement in the economy, as well as the ability of local companies to innovate, according to Gartner.

The ICT sector is divided into five broad sectors: hardware, software, services, telecommunications and semiconductors, the research firm stated in a media release. Though most countries strive to distinguish themselves in one or more of these sectors, "only the US has successfully developed in each of these five sectors", said Jamie Popkin, Gartner's group vice president and research fellow.

He painted several "scenarios" under which China might progress. In the best possible outcome, the country could evolve into a "global ICT superpower" by 2010, Popkin said. But there must first be "a high degree" of government involvement and strong vendor innovation from the ICT industry, he said.

The domestic ICT industry would then have a balanced development in all sectors, he added, noting that the country's export strengths lie in the areas of IT outsourcing, application development and hardware.

In addition, Gartner predicts that foreign direct investments will continue to be a source of start-up capital, while the ICT will be embraced at all levels of society. Out of self-interest, the industry will start to enforce intellectual property (IP) protection, and China will lead in defining new global standards and protocols, according to Gartner.

Popkin noted technology providers will need to play their cards right in order for China to become a global ICT superpower. "Vendors need to move their products and services up the 'right' value chain and develop 'go-to-market' strategies for the United States, Europe and Japan," he explained.

The Chinese government will have to adjust its policies over time, he said, focusing on the facilitation and assistance in ICT export programmes and clearing bureaucratic hurdles to ICT investment.

The government should also invest in the ICT market and business education and training at all levels, while strengthening and enforcing IP laws, Popkin said. Encouraging mergers and acquisitions would help develop economies of scale needed to support global brands, he added.

End-users of ICT in China also have a role to play in the success of China's ICT industry, he said.

"Ensuring ICT investment is aligned with business goals, tracking emerging standards and technologies, exploiting technology-driven opportunities and developing trustworthy network and securities systems, are all ways in which enterprise ICT users can positively influence the ICT industry's development," he explained.