IT slowdown here to stay, says Bill Clinton's tech guru

The IT slowdown will get worse in Europe and more people will lose their jobs, according to the head of America's oldest and largest IT association.

In an exclusive interview with silicon.com, Harris Miller, president of the ITAA (Information Technology Association of America), said a rapid turnaround in fortunes is unlikely.

"There's no magic bullet for this anywhere in the world," he said.

Harris also warned workers in Europe and the US that the economic climate could permanently affect the market for IT jobs.

"The simple laws of economics pertain in IT jobs as in manufacturing or any other market," he said. "Developing countries are going to be real competitors."

Last month online travel agent ebookers moved many of its development and call centre jobs to India in an attempt to cut costs, while a leaked memo from BA revealed its plans to use Indian workers to cover contracting posts.

"The challenge for companies in the UK and US is to offer better, higher quality services and not just assume they are going to be able to continue to dominate the market because they have in the past," Harris warned.

In April a survey by the ITAA predicted demand for IT professionals in the US will drop by 44 per cent this year.

As head of the industry's international Y2K coordinating centre, Harris testified before the US Congress on its likely impact. He was also called in to personally advise Bill Clinton on internet security following the denial-of-service attacks on prominent US organisations last year.

Harris is also president of the World Information Technology and Services Alliance (WITSA), a consortium of 41 IT industry associations from around the world.

Stopping over in the UK on a trip to advise the Tunisian government on how to develop its high-tech workforce, Harris warned that entry-level programmers in Western Europe could be squeezed out of work by countries like China, Malaysia and the Philippines.

"I see the possibility of pay cuts," he told silicon.com. "And certainly not the crazy elevation of pay and benefits we had in the late 1990s."

But despite the negative outlook, Harris remained upbeat about the industry's long-term future, predicting a recovery in mid to late 2002. "This is a temporary slowdown. This is not simply a flash in the plan, IT is here for the future," he said.

To watch the full interview with Harris Miller, click on the play button above.