UK IT chiefs get ready to spend, spend (that'll do)

UK IT chiefs are gearing up for a moderate increase in technology spend over the next 18 months, predicting four per cent growth in 2002 and seven per cent next year.

Those are the headline findings of the latest NOP/silicon.com Technology Confidence Barometer, the biggest survey of its kind of senior IT professionals and business decision makers.

The UK spending predictions compare favourably with Germany which is forecasting 0.2 per cent growth this year and five per cent in 2003. US predictions are in line with the UK.

Of those who forecast a decrease in spend - one quarter of all UK respondents - 41 per cent blamed cost cutting and 42 per cent a general downturn in industry. Only 17 per cent said they saw no need for investment in 2002. Despite being prompted no UK respondent cited the "repercussions of September 11th".

Michael Freedman, director of NOP Research Group, said the overall figures showed the UK was in line for "moderate growth".

He added: "The health of the IT industry is relatively okay and it's going to get better. The patient is doing alright."

He dismissed charges that the predictions demonstrated a degree of wishful thinking on behalf of UK IT directors.

"These are the guys that have got the budgets and they know what they need," he said.

Dale Vile, research director at analyst house Quocirca, added a note of caution for expectant vendors.

"Not everyone will necessarily benefit from the upturn in spending," he said. "The expectation is that prices will continue to fall and that will put vendors under pressure from a margins point of view."

The Technology Confidence Barometer is based on interviews with 1,300 senior IT professionals and business decision makers in the UK, Germany and the US. Fieldwork was conducted in June and July 2002.