2006: Mature offshoring, mainstream open source and more

2006 will give rise to sophisticated attitudes towards offshoring, mainstream adoption of open source software - and more controversy of the sort Google raised by censoring its Chinese search results.

These are just some of the predictions published today in a report from consultancy Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu.

According to Deloitte, this is the year it becomes imperative for all technology companies to consider offshoring due to the possible cost reductions - though it's not just about cost anymore. Businesses are starting to understand it's also an opportunity to take advantage of talent in local economies which one may not have at home.

This shift will continue in 2006, as consumers also come to view the idea more maturely.

David Tansley, technology partner at Deloitte, told silicon.com: "Consumers have a more sophisticated view [of offshoring] where if they're getting good service and can see benefits flowing through to them such as cost reduction... they're more open minded to it."

He added: "That maturity will continue to grow."

Mainstream acceptance of open source will also expand in the coming year, as it sheds its geeky image, according to Deloitte.

Tansley said: "In 2006 open source will become OK to talk about without wearing a lab coat."

Don't expect a sudden step change but a "steady and gradual adoption" which will see large, traditional software companies open up their products and make source code available to their customers and the public, according to Tansley.

This will come about as software makers move into a more collaborative relationship with customers as a way to pre-empt the fast-changing markets which can render products obsolete before they're rolled out the door and spread the load of development costs.

"Unless you've got infinite R&D resources, the more help you can get, the closer to the customer you can get in developing [software], the less money you spend," he said.

Public sector acceptance of open source software in countries such as China and France is also creating momentum for products such as Linux and removing some of the risk for enterprises who've been considering them.

"This year CIOs will get more courage to recommend [open source products] to the board," Tansley said. "No one wants to be first."

Another prediction for 2006 is that the search industry will become truly global, giving rise to more non-Romance language search engines. At the same time, the internet will lose its "amateur status" and become the seat of more regulation and commercialisation.

These two issues have already come to the fore this year, when Google caused a great deal of controversy for censoring the search results for its Chinese website - and there's more of this sort of upheaval to come.

Tansley explains: "We're pushing the limit of what's considered acceptable and unacceptable in areas with little legislation and precedence... There are moral codes being adopted but it can only be a matter of time before there's more regulation."

Deloitte's full list of predictions for 2006 are:

• Offshoring evolves from option to obligation
• Open source moves towards centre stage

• Search challenges email as the leading digital application

• The internet loses its amateur status

• Innovation becomes collaborative

• The rise and risk of electronic education

• The digital divide deepens

• Technology humanizes technology

• Connectivity transforms the device into a service

• Life changing technology will be the most profitable